The region’s overall reading for March jumped to 65.4 from February’s 61.5. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50 representing growth neutral.

The March farm equipment-sales index increased slightly to 72.2 from 72.0 in February. This was the 16th straight month that the index has advanced above growth neutral. Readings over the past several months are the strongest string of monthly readings recorded since spring 2011.

“A 25 percent gain in farm commodity prices over the past 12 months, near-
record-low short-term interest rates and growing agricultural exports have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” said Ernie Goss, Ph.D., chair in regional economics at Creighton.

Even with the rapidly rising farm input costs, 42.3 percent of bank CEOs expect 2022 net farm income to expand from 2021’s healthy level. Only 11.5 percent of bankers anticipate a decline in 2022 net farm income from 2021. The remaining 46.2 percent of bankers expect no change in 2022 net farm income.

However, 38.4 percent of bankers expect Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to have negative impacts on net farm income. Of bankers projecting negative impacts, damages are expected to be higher for livestock producers than for grain producers.

Despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and accompanying global trade tensions, bankers’ business confidence, which reflects expectations for the economy six months out, advanced to a solid 54 for March, up from 51.9 in February.

Source: Creighton University

The region’s overall reading for January fell to 61.1 from December’s 66.7. The index ranges between zero and 100 with a reading of 50 representing growth neutral.

“Solid grain prices, the Federal Reserve’s record-low short-term interest rates, and growing agricultural exports have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” said Ernie Goss, Ph.D., chair in regional economics at Creighton University.

The January farm equipment-sales index slipped to a very healthy 72.4 from 74.1 in December. This is the 14th straight month that the index has advanced above growth neutral.

Farm equipment sales index readings over the past several months are the strongest string of monthly readings recorded since spring 2011.

After declining for five consecutive months, the confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, rose for a second straight month to 61.1 from 55.2 in December. The survey asked bankers to identify farmers’ greatest threat in 2022. Bankers overwhelmingly named rising farm input prices, such as fertilizer, as the top threat.

Bankers ranked disruptions of the delivery of farm inputs and rising interest rates as the second and third greatest 2022 threats to farm operations.

The region’s overall reading for January fell to 61.1 from December’s 66.7. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Solid grain prices, the Federal Reserve’s record-low short-term interest rates, and growing agricultural exports have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, chair in regional economics at Creighton University.

The January farm equipment-sales index slipped to a very healthy 72.4 from 74.1 in December. This is the 14th straight month that the index has advanced above growth neutral.

Farm equipment sales index readings over the past several months are the strongest string of monthly readings recorded since spring 2011.

This month, bankers were asked to identify the greatest 2022 risk for farmers in their area. Bankers overwhelmingly named rising farm input prices, such as fertilizer, as the top farm threat.

Bankers ranked disruptions of the delivery of farm inputs and rising interest rates as the second and third greatest 2022 threats to farm operations.

After declining for five consecutive months, the confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, rose for a second straight month to 61.1 from 55.2 in December.

The overall Rural Mainstreet Index for February rose to 53.8 from January’s 52. A number above 50 represents growth.

The February farm equipment-sales index rose to 62.7, its highest reading since February 2013 and up from 54.5 in January. After 86 straight months of readings below growth neutral, farm equipment bounced into growth territory for the last three months.

“As a result of the rapidly improving farm economy, bankers expect farm equipment sales to expand by 3.8 percent over the next 12 months. This is up significantly from October when bank CEOs estimated that farm equipment sales would fall by an additional 3.1 percent over the same period,” said Ernie Goss, chair in regional economics at Creighton University, which conducts the research.

The farmland price index also posted strong numbers. The February reading climbed to 60, its highest level since May 2013, and up from 56.3 in January. This is the first time since 2013 that Creighton’s survey has recorded five straight months of above growth-neutral farmland prices.

Likewise, the confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, rose to a healthy 64, its highest level since March 2011, and up from January’s 60.

“Federal farm support payments, improving grain prices, and advancing exports have supported confidence offsetting negatives from pandemic ravaged retail and leisure and hospitality companies in rural areas,” Goss said.

Each month, community bank presidents and CEOs in nonurban agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of a 10-state area are surveyed regarding current economic conditions in their communities, and their projected economic outlooks six months down the road. Bankers from Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming are included.   

The overall index for November sank below growth neutral to 46.8 from October’s 53.2.

In spite of that broader decline, the November farm equipment-sales index increased to 42.9, its highest level since December 2013, and up from 37.9 in October. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with 50 representing growth neutral.

“Recent improvements in agriculture commodity prices, federal farm support payments, and the Federal Reserve’s record low interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy. Still, only 6.5 percent of bankers reported improvements from October, while 12.9 percent detailed economic pullbacks for the month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, chair of regional economics at the university.

This month bankers were asked to forecast the share of grain farmers likely to experience negative cash flow for 2021. Bankers expect 9.2 percent of grain farmers’ cash expenses to exceed cash revenue. This is an improvement from 2019 when bankers projected 12.4 percent of farmers to experience negative cash flows in 2020.

The confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, dipped to 50 from October’s 51.6.

Each month, Creighton University surveys community bank presidents and CEOs in agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of a 10-state area.

The overall index increased to 12.5 from April’s record low 12.1. It remained well below the 35.5 reading from March. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

The May farm equipment-sales index increased slightly to 21.9 from 20.0 in April.

“Since this time last year, livestock and grain prices have sunk by 19.1 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively. Accordingly, approximately 73 percent of bankers reported restructuring farm loans. As a result of the restructuring, bank CEOs expect farm loan defaults to expand by only 5.4 percent in the next 12 months,” said Ernie Goss, Ph.D., chair in regional economics at Creighton.

In May, researchers asked bankers to assess the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), and 100 percent of respondents said they consider the program a success. More than one in five bank CEOs supports PPP expansion.

The confidence index, which reflects expectations for the economy six months out, sank to 22.1 from April’s 27.4.

Each month, community bank presidents and CEOs in nonurban agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of a 10-state region are surveyed regarding current economic conditions in their communities and their projected economic outlooks.

Bankers from Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming participate.

The overall index dipped from 54.2 in November to 50.2 in December but remained above 50, which indicates growth.

Bank CEOs who responded to the survey expect about 12.5 percent of grain farmers to experience financial losses for 2020, which is an improvement over projections for 2019, when bankers expected more than 15 percent of grain farmers to experience negative cash flows for 2019.

The November farm equipment-sales index sank to 27.9 from November’s 37.5.

Survey findings also revealed that bankers expect farm loan defaults to increase in 2020. Almost two-thirds of survey respondents indicated their bank had increased collateral requirements, and just over 34 percent said their bank had rejected a higher percentage of farm loan applications.

The overall index rose to 51.4 from 50.1 in September. This is the highest reading since June. It also marks the third time in the past four months that the overall index has risen above growth neutral.

“Federal agriculture crop support payments and somewhat higher grain prices have boosted the Rural Mainstreet Index slightly above growth neutral for the month. Even so, almost three of four bank CEOs, or 73 percent, reported continuing negative impacts from the trade war,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The October farm equipment-sales index improved to 39.7 from September’s 35.9. This reading is also the highest it has been since June, although at the below-50 mark, it does not yet represent growth in the market.

Borrowing by farmers for October remained strong. The borrowing index declined to a strong 68.9 from September’s 72.2. The checking-deposit index advanced to 60.8 from September’s 54.2, while the index for certificates of deposit and other savings instruments dipped to 50 from 51.4 in September.
The confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, fell to 36.5 from September’s 42.9, which is the lowest it has been in two years.

Each month, community bank presidents and CEOs in agriculturally and energy dependent portions of a 10-state area are surveyed regarding current economic conditions in their communities and their projected economic outlooks six months down the road. Bankers from Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming participate.