Overall: The region’s overall reading for February fell to 47.9 from 52.0 in January. This marks the12th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Due to weakness in the farm economy, especially for grain, approximately 75% of bankers support additional Congressional financial support for the agriculture sector. Pullbacks in farm exports for 2025 continue to undermine the regional farm economy,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, met January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by 25%.  Approximately 73.1% advocate no change, while the remaining 3.8% support a rate increase.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 16.7 from 18.8 in January. “This is the 30th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates and the $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment sales,” said Goss.

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Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index rose to a very weak 18.2 from January’s 17.4. “This is the 19th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,”  Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 8th time in the past nine months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index fell to 40.0, its lowest level since October 2024, and down from 42.0 in January.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The February confidence index sank to 40.0 from January’s 42.3. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to push banker confidence below growth neutral,” said Goss. 

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Overall: The region’s overall reading for November climbed to a soft 50.2 from October’s very weak 35.2. It was the highest reading since July of last year. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Yields have been healthy across the region and have offset some of the weakness in farm commodity prices. Likewise, lower fuel costs and lower short-term interest boosted the modest improvement in farm conditions for the month. Even so, more than eight of 10 bankers see lower ag commodity prices as the greatest threat to the farmer,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm Equipment Sales: The farm equipment sales index slumped to 14.6, its lowest level since October 2016, and was down from 18.8 last month. “This is the 16th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak farm commodity prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and Ranching Land Prices: For the sixth time in the past seven months, farmland prices sank. However, the region’s farmland index improved to a weak 44.4 from October’s six-year low of 38.5. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below break-even grain prices, have significantly reduced farmer demand for ag land,” said Goss.

Interest Rates: Approximately 64.3% of bankers recommended that the Federal Reserve make no change to short-term interest rates at its December meeting. The remaining 35.7% advocated a 0.25% reduction.

Banking: The November loan volume index declined to a solid 58.9 from a strong 73.1. The checking deposit index fell to 59.3 from 63.7 in October. The index for certificates of deposits (CDs) and other savings instruments sank to 53.7 from 63.5 in October. The Federal Reserve’s higher interest rate policies have boosted CD purchases above growth neutral for 24 straight months.

Hiring: The new hiring index for November was unchanged from October’s 50.0.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The November confidence index increased to a weak 46.4, its highest level since March 2022, and up from October’s 29.6. “Weak agriculture commodity prices and negative farm cash flow, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to place banker confidence below growth neutral,” said Goss.

Home and retail sales: Home sales sank to 42.6 from October’s weak 46.3. Likewise, retail sales in the region were very weak with a November reading of 42.0, up from October’s even weaker 36.0.

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• The Rural Mainstreet Index plummeted to its lowest level since the beginning of the pandemic and fell below growth neutral for the 13^th straight month.
• For the fourth time in the past five months, farmland prices sank. 
• On average, bank CEOs expect farmland prices to fall by 5.2% in the next year with almost one-fourth anticipating price declines between 10% and 20%.
• Farm equipment sales sank for the 14^th straight month.
• On average, bankers expect almost 40% of farmers in the region to experience negative 2024 farm income.
• According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were up by $57.0 million (0.8%) from the same period in 2023.

For a 13^th straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the September survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for September sank to 37.5 from 40.9 in August. It was the lowest reading since the beginning of the pandemic in spring 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 that represents growth neutral.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for September increased to 19.0 from 16.7. “This is the 14^th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and negative farm income are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: For the fourth time in the past five months, farmland prices sank. The region’s farmland index fell to 43.8 from August’s 45.5. “Only 4.2% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from August levels,” said Goss.

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Overall: The region’s overall reading for July sank to 41.3, its lowest reading since November 2023, and down from 41.7 in June.  The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 11th straight month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for July plummeted to 19.0, its lowest level in more than seven years, and down from June’s 31.8. â€śThis is the 12^th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After falling below growth neutral for two straight months, farmland prices rose above the growth neutral threshold for July. The region’s farmland increased to 52.2 from June’s 49.9. “Only 8.7% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from June levels,” said Goss.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were down $198 million, or 3.6%, from the same period in 2023.

Banking: The July loan volume index stood at a very strong 67.4, but down from June’s 79.2. The checking deposit index increased to a weak 45.5 from June’s 34.8. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments rose to 65.9 from 63.0 in June.

Interest Rates: Bankers were asked their recommendations for Federal Reserve interest rate actions for the rest of 2024. Almost half, or 47.8%, advocate for two rate cuts of one-quarter of one percentage point, or one-half of one percentage point.

Hiring: The new hiring index for July improved to 50.0 from June’s 47.7. In terms of economic risks for the region for the next 12 months, over half, or 52.2%, indicated a recession as the greatest risk, 26.0% named an upturn in inflation, 17.4% identified a debt crisis and 4.4% specified little or no economic risks for the next 12 months.

Home and retail sales: After expanding to a strong 62.5 in June, the home sales index tumbled to July’s 33.3. Likewise, retail sales in the region, much like that for the nation, were very weak with a July retail index of 39.1, down from 41.3 in June. “High consumer debt, elevated interest rates and weaker farm income are cutting into retail sales for the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” said Goss.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.

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“Higher interest rates, weak agriculture commodity prices and sinking agriculture equipment sales pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 10th straight month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s .

According to James Brown, president of Hardin County Savings Bank in Eldora, Iowa, “Farm operating loans are up 20% in total volume compared to last year, a sign that cash flow and cash (balances) are down from last year.”

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for June dropped to 31.8 from 34.0 in May. “This is the 12^th time in the past 13 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After rising above the growth neutral threshold for 53 straight months, the region’s farmland slumped below growth neutral for a second consecutive month to 49.9, but it was up from May’s 47.9. “Only 4.3% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from May levels,” said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a very weak 29.2 from May’s 28.8. “Weak agriculture commodity prices and farm exports, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to constrain banker confidence,” said Goss.

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According to the report, John Deere plans to move production of mid-frame skid steer loaders and compact track loaders from the current plant in Dubuque to Mexico.

“Those are very attractive jobs,” Creighton University economist Ernie Goss said. “Those are jobs you don’t like to lose.”

Those jobs likely won’t come back with new land being purchased and a facility being built to produce the line of equipment, Goss continued.

The sentiment was echoed Monday in the Mid-America Business Conditions report for the month of May showing manufacturing companies below growth-neutral for the past three out of four months.

“Manufacturing is weak and getting a bit weaker, not a recession yet, but it’s certainly moving in that direction. Farmers have cut back significantly on their purchases of agricultural equipment (thanks to) obviously lower commodity prices and higher interest rates,” said Godd.

Higher interest rates are increasing the value of the dollar and creating a very difficult environment for companies to price products competitively, Goss said.

“Long term I think we’ll be okay, but short term is a real struggle,” added Goss.

Goss remains optimistic about the strength of the Midwest economy, saying places like Iowa are able to weather economic downturns better than our neighbors to the east and west thanks to our ability to produce products more efficiently and land values that continue to rise.

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April 2024 Survey Results at a Glance:

For an eighth straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the April survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for April increased to 45.8 from 38.0 in March, or its lowest level since June 2020. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and higher grain storage costs pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the eighth straight month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for April improved to a weak 47.7 from March’s 30.4, which was the lowest reading since May 2020. “This is the 10^th time in the past 11 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: The region’s farmland price index rose to a solid 56.5 from March’s 56.0. The farmland price index has remained above growth neutral for 53 consecutive months. “Creighton’s survey continues to point to solid, but slowing, growth in farmland prices for 2024. Approximately 17.4% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from March levels,” said Goss.

“Even with weaker farm conditions, only approximately 0.9% of bankers reported an upturn in farm loan delinquencies over the past six months. This is slightly below last month’s 1.0% when the same question was asked,” said Goss.

Approximately half of bank CEOs reported that ethanol production was very important to their local economy.

Terry Engelken, past president of Washington State Bank in Washington, Iowa, reported that, “We have a biodiesel plant and that does not need a pipeline (to transport CO2). There is a new technology that converts the CO2 to methanol and thus would end the need for the pipelines.”

Banking: The April loan volume index soared to a strong and record high 85.4 from 79.2 in March. The checking deposit index sank to 52.2 from March’s 62.5. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments slipped to a still strong 71.7 from 72.9 in March.

James Brown, CEO of Hardin County State Bank in Eldora, Iowa, said, “Farm operating lines of credit will increase this year due to the loss of working capital on most financial statements for 2023. There is still a reasonable amount of working capital on most balance sheets, but cash flows show breakeven levels at current prices with a normal crop year.”

Hiring: The new hiring index for April climbed to 56.8 from March’s 52.2. “Approximately 13.6% of bankers reported an increase in hiring over March levels,” said Goss. Over the past 12 months, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicate that the regional Rural Mainstreet Economy boosted jobs by 2.6%, compared to 0.9% for urban areas of the same states. 

Confidence: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The April confidence index increased to 37.5 from March’s 36.0. “Weak and falling agriculture commodity prices, farm exports and higher interest rates over the past several months continued to constrain banker confidence,” said Goss.

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“Higher interest rates, weaker agriculture commodity prices and a credit squeeze are having a significant and negative impact on Rural Mainstreet businesses and on Rural Mainstreet farmers. Jim Eckert, CEO of Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Ill. indicated that unless crop prices improve, 2024 will not be a good year for area farmers,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment-sales index for January sank to 47.9 from December’s weak 49.5. “This is the seventh time in the past eight months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weaker grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: The region’s farmland price index fell to a still strong 64.0 from December’s 67.2. The farmland price index has remained above growth neutral for every month since November 2019. “Creighton’s survey continues to point to solid, but slowing, growth in farmland prices. Approximately, 28.0% of bankers reported that farmland prices expanded from December levels,” said Goss. 

Hiring: The new hiring index for January increased to growth neutral, 50.0, from December’s 49.0. “Almost 100% of bankers reported no change in hiring from December’s hiring activity,” said Goss. 

Retail sales: Retail sales were below growth neutral for the last three months. The retail-sales index for January fell to 46.0 from 46.6 in December. “High consumer debt and elevated interest rates are cutting into retail sales in rural areas of the region,” said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The January confidence index sank to 38.5 from December’s 43.3. Falling agriculture commodity prices and higher interest rates over the past several months continued to constrain business confidence. 

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• For a fourth straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index sank below growth neutral.
• Farm loan delinquencies fell to one-tenth of one percentage point over the past six months.
• More than half of bank CEOs expect a 2024 recession.
• According to the International Trade Administration, the export of agriculture products from the region declined from $14.1 billion for the first ten months of 2022 to $12.0 billion for the same period in 2023 for a 14.7% slump.

For a fourth straight month, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below growth neutral, according to the December survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

Overall: The region’s overall reading for December rose to 41.7 from 40.4 in November. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. 

“Higher interest rates and a credit squeeze are having a significant and negative impact on Rural Mainstreet businesses. Approximately 13.3% of bank CEOs indicated that their local economy was already in a recession while another 43.3% expect a recession in early 2024,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

When asked to name the greatest 2024 economic threat for community banks, approximately four of 10 identified a downturn in farm income as the chief 2024 hazard.

Farming and ranching land prices: The region’s farmland price index increased to 67.2 from November’s 66.7. “Creighton’s survey continues to point to solid, but slowing, growth in farmland prices. Approximately, 41.4% of bankers reported that a downturn in farm income was the greatest threat to community banks in 2024,” said Goss.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment-sales index for December was unchanged from November’s weak 49.5. “This is the sixth time in the past seven months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

According to the International Trade Administration, the export of agriculture products from the region declined from $14.1 billion for the first ten months of 2022 to $12.0 billion for the same period in 2023 for a 14.7% slump.

Hiring: The new hiring index for December slipped to 49.0 from November’s 49.1. “Only 3.6% of bank CEOs reported an increase in employment in their area while 14.1% indicated a pullback in hiring for the month,” said Goss. 

Confidence: Even though the confidence index climbed to 43.3 from November’s record low 21.2, higher interest rates, deposit outflows and a slowing farm economy over the past several months continued to constrain the business confidence.

The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy.

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