Overall: The region’s overall reading for April improved to a weak 47.9 from March’s 40.9. This marks the 14^th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weakness in farm commodity prices and elevated agriculture input costs are spilling over into the   rural business community. Approximately, 54.2% of bankers reported that their local economy was in a recession,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The April farm equipment sales index slumped to a very weak 26.1, down from 28.6 in March. This is the 32^nd straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral.

“The 2026 conflict in Iran has created even more volatility in the agricultural sector, impacting agricultural equipment sales by tightening farmer operating margins via increasing input costs and shifting farmer planting decisions,” said Goss.

Farming and ranchland prices: For the third time in 2026, the region’s farm and ranchland price index sank below growth neutral to 48.0 from 50.2 in March. “Though farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm income, weak farm income, lower farm liquidity and tougher credit standards have pushed farmland values lower,” said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. Even so, the April confidence index rose to a weak 39.1 from 29.5 in March. “In spite of $12 billion of federal farm support, weak grain prices, higher input prices and expected negative farm cash flows continued to weigh on banker confidence,” said Goss.

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Overall: The region’s overall reading for February fell to 47.9 from 52.0 in January. This marks the12th time since January 2025 that the index has moved below the growth neutral threshold. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Due to weakness in the farm economy, especially for grain, approximately 75% of bankers support additional Congressional financial support for the agriculture sector. Pullbacks in farm exports for 2025 continue to undermine the regional farm economy,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate setting committee, the FOMC, met January 27-28 to consider changing rates. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, recommend reducing short-term interest rates by 25%.  Approximately 73.1% advocate no change, while the remaining 3.8% support a rate increase.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index sank to a very weak 16.7 from 18.8 in January. “This is the 30th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Lower interest rates and the $12 billion of federal farm support have yet to stimulate farm equipment sales,” said Goss.

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Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index rose to a very weak 18.2 from January’s 17.4. “This is the 19th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,”  Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farming and ranch land prices: For the 8th time in the past nine months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index fell to 40.0, its lowest level since October 2024, and down from 42.0 in January.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The February confidence index sank to 40.0 from January’s 42.3. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to push banker confidence below growth neutral,” said Goss. 

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Overall: The region’s overall reading for July sank to 41.3, its lowest reading since November 2023, and down from 41.7 in June.  The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“Weak agriculture commodity prices, sinking agriculture equipment sales and declining farm exports pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 11th straight month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for July plummeted to 19.0, its lowest level in more than seven years, and down from June’s 31.8. â€śThis is the 12^th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After falling below growth neutral for two straight months, farmland prices rose above the growth neutral threshold for July. The region’s farmland increased to 52.2 from June’s 49.9. “Only 8.7% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from June levels,” said Goss.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association, regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for 2024 year-to-date were down $198 million, or 3.6%, from the same period in 2023.

Banking: The July loan volume index stood at a very strong 67.4, but down from June’s 79.2. The checking deposit index increased to a weak 45.5 from June’s 34.8. The index for certificates of deposits and other savings instruments rose to 65.9 from 63.0 in June.

Interest Rates: Bankers were asked their recommendations for Federal Reserve interest rate actions for the rest of 2024. Almost half, or 47.8%, advocate for two rate cuts of one-quarter of one percentage point, or one-half of one percentage point.

Hiring: The new hiring index for July improved to 50.0 from June’s 47.7. In terms of economic risks for the region for the next 12 months, over half, or 52.2%, indicated a recession as the greatest risk, 26.0% named an upturn in inflation, 17.4% identified a debt crisis and 4.4% specified little or no economic risks for the next 12 months.

Home and retail sales: After expanding to a strong 62.5 in June, the home sales index tumbled to July’s 33.3. Likewise, retail sales in the region, much like that for the nation, were very weak with a July retail index of 39.1, down from 41.3 in June. “High consumer debt, elevated interest rates and weaker farm income are cutting into retail sales for the Rural Mainstreet Economy,” said Goss.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.

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“Higher interest rates, weak agriculture commodity prices and sinking agriculture equipment sales pushed the overall reading below growth neutral for the 10th straight month,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s .

According to James Brown, president of Hardin County Savings Bank in Eldora, Iowa, “Farm operating loans are up 20% in total volume compared to last year, a sign that cash flow and cash (balances) are down from last year.”

Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index for June dropped to 31.8 from 34.0 in May. “This is the 12^th time in the past 13 months that the index has fallen below growth neutral. Higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions and weak grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” said Goss.

Farming and ranching land prices: After rising above the growth neutral threshold for 53 straight months, the region’s farmland slumped below growth neutral for a second consecutive month to 49.9, but it was up from May’s 47.9. “Only 4.3% of bank CEOs reported that farmland prices expanded from May levels,” said Goss.

Confidence: Rural bankers remain very pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The June confidence index increased to a very weak 29.2 from May’s 28.8. “Weak agriculture commodity prices and farm exports, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to constrain banker confidence,” said Goss.

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Overall: The region’s overall reading for October once again sank below growth neutral to 44.2 from 46.3 in September. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. This was the fifth consecutive month the overall reading has fallen below growth neutral.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity. Almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, reported that the economy was already in a recession,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Farm equipment sales: For the second time in the past three months, the farm equipment-sales index slumped below growth neutral to 47.8 from September’s 58.0. The index has risen above growth neutral for 21 of the last 23 months.

Farming and ranching: The region’s farmland price index for October declined to 58.0 from September’s 61.1 but moved above growth neutral for 25 straight months.

Banking: The October loan volume index dropped to a still strong 76.8 from 79.5 in September. The checking-deposit index fell to 34.0 from September’s 46.3, while the index for certificates of deposit and other savings instruments rose to 46.2 from 34.6 in September. “Higher farm input costs and drought conditions in portions of the region supported stronger borrowing from farmers,” said Goss.

Confidence: The slowing economy, strong energy prices, higher borrowing costs and elevated agriculture input costs pushed the business confidence index down to 30.8 from 40.7 in September. “This is the lowest reading for the confidence index since May 2020,” said Goss.

The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states, approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy.

Source: Creighton University